Gross Operating Surplus (GOS) is a concept referring mainly to company profits, with a number of conceptual adjustments applied to them. The sector this project refers to is private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) means that the project attempts to model profits for privately owned corporations not trading within the financial sectors. The current process of estimating the quarterly tail (as of April 2022, this is 2020 onwards) utilises a number of data sources and expertise from the organisation. The aim of this project is to improve the process currently in place for the quarterly production cycle of creating GOS for the PNFC sector. Researching other National Statistic Institutions worldwide showed that the concept tends to be calculated as a residual concept, albeit using slightly different methods. The ONS is the only institute that attempts to calculate GOS as a concept in its own right. Using regression and ARIMA modelling, a number of suitable methods have been found, all of which have an adjusted R squared value of over 0.85. Due to the nature of the project, despite a number of methods being most accurate, one linear and one polynomial regression prototyped estimator has been sent to the production team, both of which use Monthly Business Survey data to estimate. The productionised code is part of the Reproducible Analytical Pipeline (RAP) that can be used to estimate PNFC GOS which also holds the desk instructions to complete the task.
The full text of these resource are only available to Oxford Brookes staff and students. Please login to RADAR if you are a student or member of staff
Hendy, Gemma
Rights Holders: Hendy, Gemma Supervisors: Kamperis, Samuel
School of Engineering, Computing and MathematicsFaculty of Technology, Design and Environment
MSc Data Analytics with Government
2022
© Hendy, Gemma Published by Oxford Brookes UniversityAll rights reserved